Marketability of biodegradable pots by coupling transaction data and survey-based consumer willingness to pay (WTP) estimates

Purpose

Plastic pollution remains a pervasive environmental challenge and identifying economically viable alternatives is imperative. While regulatory efforts primarily target plastic bags, recent research highlights consumer acceptance of biodegradable alternatives across various product categories, including plant pots. However, much of the existing literature relies on estimates for “willingness-to-pay” (WTP) of certain products—according to their attributes—by using survey-based data of potential spending, which may not reflect actual market purchase behavior. This study connects hypothetical WTP survey data with observed market transactions from consumer panel data with the goal of better assessing the market of biodegradable pots.

What Did We Do?

Our analysis focuses on plastic pot store purchases recorded in the NielsenIQ consumer (transaction) panel data from 2006 to 2009. To ensure compatibility with results from a recent study of survey-derived WTP estimates, we restricted the sample to households purchasing a single plastic pot per month. Price purchase data is inflation-adjusted to 2024 values using U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) consumer price index data, updating the purchasing power to that of corresponding survey-based data. Given the limited number of scanner-based purchases (113 observations), we employed bootstrapping—a statistical technique that generates additional observations by repeatedly sampling from the original dataset—to augment the dataset to 471 transactions in order to meet the number of survey data observations.

A new price variable (composite price variable) was constructed by taking random market prices and adding random WTP survey data observations. These new prices and their dynamics represent increases in monthly expenditure. We incorporated key product attributes in our model; see details in Table 1 to analyze their effect. Attributes include different periods of biodegradability duration, the type of plastic product targeted by policy or regulation (single use food containers, packaging products, grocery bags, or all single-use products), and the type of bioproduct used (animal waste, agricultural waste, or wood waste feedstock). We estimated a conditional logit model using Stata, which allowed us to compare how consumers valued different options having several product attributes or features—including timespan for biodegradability and type of biodegradable material—when making purchasing decisions.

Table 1: Attribute tableSource: Field, 2024
Table 1: Attribute table
Source: Field, 2024

For the survey implementation, respondents are presented with three options each containing a randomly generated combination of four attributes and can select one option from three given options. A sample shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1: Sample choice blockSource: Field, 2024
Figure 1: Sample choice block
Source: Field, 2024

What Have We Learned?

VARIABLES Parameter Estimates
Previous Price, Increase in Expenditure (X0) -0.014***
(0.0012)
New Price, Increase in Expenditure (X1) -0.013***
(0.0012)
Time to Fully Biodegrade in years (X2) -0.003***
(0.0007)
-0.004***
(0.0007)
Policy targeting:
(i) Single Use Packaging Products (X3) 0.067
(0.0824)
0.112
(0.0833)
(ii) Single Use Food Containers (X4) 0.027
(0.0782)
0.132*
(0.0782)
(iii) All Single Use Products (X5) 0.199**
(0.0888)
0.292***
(0.0842)
Product source:
(i) Animal Waste Feedstock (X6) -0.010
(0.0681)
-0.034
(0.0714)
(ii) Wood Waste Feedstock (X7) 0.015
(0.0661)
0.025
(0.0667)
Neither Option 1 or Option 2 Policy choice (X8) -1.302***
(0.1110)
-1.604***
(0.1100)
Observations 8,478 (471) 8,478 (471)

Column 2 shows estimate of attribute effects from combining transaction and survey WTP data, while Column 3 shows prior survey-based estimates of attribute effects. X₁ represents the New Price Variable in our analysis, while X0 corresponds to the increase in monthly expenditure in survey data analysis. Robust standard errors in parentheses. Asterisks indicate: *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

Table 3: Willingness-to-Pay Results ($)
VARIABLES WTP (n = 471) WTP (n = 471)
Time to Fully Biodegrade (years) -0.23 -0.26
Policy targeting:
(i) Single Use Packaging Products 5.15 7.97
(ii) Single Use Food Containers 2.08 9.46
(iii) All Single Use Products 15.31 20.86
Product Source:
(i) Animal Waste Feedstock -0.77 -2.44
(ii) Wood Waste Feedstock 1.15 1.76

Column 2 shows WTP estimates from combining transaction and survey WTP data, while Column 3 shows prior survey-based WTP estimates. All WTP estimates are in USD ($). n represents the total number of observations. Figures in bold represent significance at 5%.

Future Plans

We will incorporate demographic variables into the econometric model to examine how WTP varies across different consumer groups. Producers of biodegradable pots should consider WTP estimates across attributes in their feasibility assessment. Notably, each additional year of biodegradability decreases WTP by $0.23 per month, suggesting a preference for faster decomposition. Meanwhile, consumers exhibit no significant difference in WTP based on whether the bioproduct source is agricultural feedstock, animal waste, or wood waste, indicating flexibility in material choice.

Authors

Presenting & Corresponding author

Sanket Parajuli, Applied Economics Graduate Research Assistant, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, University of Idaho, Para5126@vandals.uidaho.edu

Additional author

Hernan Tejeda, PhD., Associate Professor and Extension Specialist, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, University of Idaho

Additional Information

Field, C. T. (2024). Greenbacks and grazing gambles: Exploring plastic preferences and pasture predicaments in two acts (Master’s thesis, University of Idaho).

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2025). Consumer price index data. U.S. Department of Labor. Retrieved February 1, 2025, from https://www.bls.gov/cpi/data.htm

Acknowledgements

We thank USDA NIFA Sustainable Agricultural Systems project IDA02004-CG (Award No. 2020-69012-31871) for supporting this research. We also acknowledge the Kilts Center for Marketing Data Center at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business for providing access to NielsenIQ datasets. The conclusions drawn from the NielsenIQ data are those of the researcher(s) and do not reflect the views of NielsenIQ. NielsenIQ is not responsible for, had no role in, and was not involved in analyzing and preparing the results reported herein.

The authors are solely responsible for the content of these proceedings. The technical information does not necessarily reflect the official position of the sponsoring agencies or institutions represented by planning committee members, and inclusion and distribution herein does not constitute an endorsement of views expressed by the same. Printed materials included herein are not refereed publications. Citations should appear as follows. EXAMPLE: Authors. 2025. Title of presentation. Waste to Worth. Boise, ID. April 711, 2025. URL of this page. Accessed on: today’s date.

Making Dairy Manure More Valuable Than Milk

Can Anaerobic Digestion Lead to Additional Revenue Streams On a Dairy Farm?

CowPots are the invention of necessity. Brothers Matt and Ben Freund are second generation dairy farmers in the northwest hills of Connecticut. In dairy farming, the most challenging job is to manage the nutrient stream in an environmentally sound manner. In 1997 the brothers installed a methane digester to heat the manure coming out of a cold barn to be able to separate the liquid year round for field application with a drag line system. This made the farm much more efficient and timely while at the same time reducing soil compaction and improving crop yields. The solids which are composted were first used for bedding the herd and are now used to mold the CowPots, whose value far exceeded bedding value. Farmers and gardeners have always considered cow manure a wholesome organic soil amendment for their crops. The challenge was to find a new and better way to get manure to these soils while maintaining value to consumers.

CowPots are a patented, environmentally friendly product made from the nutrient rich manure and are a vehicle for exporting the farm’s excess nutrients. Through production and sales of CowPots the Freunds have reduced the nutrient load on their farm by approximately 11% and have added a significant 2nd income to the dairy operation.

Examples of CowPots    Root Example

Emblems of sound stewardship, CowPots are the ideal product for farmers, growers, gardeners — and for the planet.

What did we do?

The idea for using manure solids to fashion a horticultural pot occurred in the mid 1990’s. The dairy farmer’s wife, Theresa owns a seasonal farm market and garden center adjacent to the dairy farm. Matt noticed that when his wife was tilling the soil each spring, the supposed biodegradable pots were still fully intact.

Confronting stricter regulations on nutrient management through state and federal rules, he needed an alternative to the status quo of storing and spreading manure on their 260+ cow dairy farm. Comparing the fibers found in the peat pots to the fibers of the manure solids, he brought his idea to the kitchen. In Matt’s spare time he began forming, pressing, pasting and molding manure fibers into pots (initially working in the greenhouse and using equipment from his wife’s kitchen and not wanting to get divorced, he moved outside to the farm shop). Nearly a decade was spent experimenting through trial and error.

In the mid 2000’s a production prototype was constructed in one bay of the farm shop where 4” pots were formed and placed by hand onto a drying oven. In 2006, CowPots worked with a local company to shrink wrap stacks of pots and sold them for resale at local garden centers and hardware stores in the tri-state area. That same year Freunds received an SBIR grant to further investigate the horticultural benefits of growing in CowPots. Concurrently, UConn and Cornell University conducted trials in greenhouse settings. In 2009, a standalone manufacturing facility was built and the lineup of sizes offered grew. Today the Freunds manufacture 12 size pots for horticultural uses as well as custom shapes for customers.

What have we learned?

Freunds have learned not all dairy fibers are the same. There are numerous activities on any farm which affect the characteristics of this material. Changes in feed, added minerals, digester upsets,composting temperatures, duration in the in-vessel composer and pasturing the herd have been the most influential on Freund’s farm.

Matt Freund with Product   CowPots

Future Plans

The Freunds had many goals one of which was not to have CowPots dictate the management of the dairy. Every bucket of manure fiber needs to be tested before it is used for production of CowPots. The equipment is adjusted in response to any changes.

Another goal was to design a production facility with no waste stream. Dry matter of the fiber is very important to achieve this goal. By having nothing but water vapor and finished product exiting the facility, permitting becomes much less difficult and our footprint becomes much smaller.

The CowPots manufacturing facility is fast approaching their production capacity with shifts that run 24/6. New automation in the packaging system will be installed in the coming months for a total of three robots in the facility. Currently, Freunds are putting together an expansion plan to include an additional production line. They are also working with a company in a similar business to look for synergies. Freunds are investigating other waste streams which could be blended with CowPots products to make the end product even better and at a reduced cost. Recently an engineer came on board to identify production inefficiencies within the manufacturing system to help reduce costs. As the market builds, Freunds will be looking for partners to work with in different areas of the country.

Author

Matt Freund, Owner/Inventor matt@cowpots.com

Additional information

http://cowpots.com/

https://www.youtube.com/user/CowPots

Acknowledgements

Northeast SARE, SBIR, USDA NRCS and Rural Development, CT Dept of Agriculture and CT Dept of Energy and Environmental Protection

The authors are solely responsible for the content of these proceedings. The technical information does not necessarily reflect the official position of the sponsoring agencies or institutions represented by planning committee members, and inclusion and distribution herein does not constitute an endorsement of views expressed by the same. Printed materials included herein are not refereed publications. Citations should appear as follows. EXAMPLE: Authors. 2015. Title of presentation. Waste to Worth: Spreading Science and Solutions. Seattle, WA. March 31-April 3, 2015. URL of this page. Accessed on: today’s date.