Purpose
We estimated milking cow manure production for US states from 1970 to 2023 with the aim to provide a broad perspective to stakeholders who manage and optimize the use of dairy manure. Stakeholders include producers and those working on their behalf such as agronomists, applicators, engineers, extension agents, researchers, governmental agencies, cooperatives, and markets.
It is hoped that with increased understanding of how manure production has changed over time and location stakeholders can better understand trends and historical conditions which impact their efforts.
What Did We Do?
We estimated milking cow manure production for 48 US states from 1970 to 2023 using an empirical equation estimating manure production as a function of milk production published by the American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineer’s Manure Production and Characteristics standard. To apply this equation to each state we utilized two data sources produced by the United States Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), annual milk production and annual milking cow herd size. To gain further insight data sources reporting the number of dairy farms and land available for manure application in each state were additionally gathered from NASS and reported in combination with manure production. The workflow and references for combining this data are displayed in the following figures.
What Have We Learned?
Nationally annual dairy manure production has decreased from 1970-2023 by approximately 4% (2.2 billion gallons). From 1998 to 2023 annual dairy manure production increased by approximately 13% (6.4 billion gallons). Although national milking cow numbers generally declined from 1970 to 1998 then nearly remained constant until 2023, this trend was offset by continual increase in manure production per cow from 1970-2023 due to the direct relationship with milk production, which has continued to increase from 1970-2023. Also, the annual number of gallons of manure per dairy farm has increased from 1970-2023 due to a decrease in number of dairies combined with an increase in manure production per cow. It is accepted that the US dairy industry has consolidated over time, this data supports that its’ manure production has consolidated as well. The author posits based on experience and this analysis that nationally, over time, manure systems in support of livestock production have contributed to an increase in volume of manure being managed to date. As dairy cows move to increasing levels of confinement, from pasture and lots which utilize land base as a manure system to barns with more engineered manure systems, greater collection of manure occurs and therefore must be managed. Regarding the impact of the specific type of engineered manure systems impact on volume of manure that must be managed the author posits this currently varies based on the kind of manure system selected, either adding or subtracting to the managed manure stream, which is a function heavily dependent on local climate (precipitation, evaporation, and length of storage period) and technology adoption (covers, flush systems, separation, and advanced treatment). In the upper Midwest with relatively high precipitation, low evaporation, and long winter periods dairy manure systems are predominantly collect and store only, overall adding to the volume of manure to be managed as additional precipitation is also captured by the uncovered nature of most storages in this region.
At the state level the change in manure production has varied. From 1970 to 2023, 12 states have increased manure production, the remaining 26 states have decreased manure production. This has resulted in a change in the location of where manure is produced. In 2023, most manure was produced in a few states. In 2023, 10 states produced 70% of the total annual US dairy manure production, with 6 states producing over 50%.
Future Plans
Authors seek to maintain this data analysis in a method available to stakeholders, additionally incorporating manure production from swine, beef, and poultry into it, and updating it as future NASS reports are published.
Authors
Presenting & corresponding author
Mike Krcmarik, Professional Engineer, mikekrcmarik@gmail.com
Additional Information
Email corresponding author for copy of all data and figures used in this analysis, including figures published on the poster only.
Acknowledgements
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- American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers, Engineering Practices Subcommittee of the ASAE Agricultural Sanitation and Waste Management Committee responsible for standard ASAE D384.2 Manure Production and Characteristics used in this analysis.
- United States Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service responsible for the various surveys and reports used in this analysis.
- Allen Young, Eric County Soil and Water Conservation District (New York) providing valuable review and discussion.
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